Time goes so quickly. We’re already half way through January! Now seems like a good time to look at the Arizona housing market stats for November and December of 2014. Let’s analyze what those numbers might mean for Phoenix area homes in 2015.
At first sight, it seems that November was a horrible month for real estate but that things really picked up in December. The main issue is that there were only 17 working days in November. December had 22, which is a 29% increase in the days on which sales could be closed and deeds could be filed.
Even with the difference in the number of working days, December was a stronger month than expected. Sellers are seeing a distinctly improved market. The most important reason for this is that supply fell faster than normal in December.
Here’s a breakdown of the ARMLS numbers for January 1st from 2014 and 2015:
-Active Listings (excluding UCB): Down 2.1% from 23,091 last year to 22,604 now. Down 8.1% from 24,593 in December.
-Active Listings (including UCB): Down 1.6% from 25,319 last year to 24,918 now. Down 9.1% from 27,427 in December.
-Pending Listings: Down 5.5% from 4,667 last year to 4,410 now. Down 19.8% from 5,497 in December.
-Under Contract Listings (including Pending & UCB): Down 2.5% from 6,895 last year to 6,724 now. Down 19.3% from 8,331 in December.
-Monthly Sales: Up 11.3% from 5,837 last year to 6,496 now. Up 29.9% from 5,000 in December.
-Monthly Average Sales Price per Square Foot: Up 3.2% from $123.48 last year to $131.62 now. Up 1.8% from $129.30 in December.
-Monthly Median Sales Price: up 6.2% from $185,500 last year to $197,000 now. Up 2.6% from 192,000 in December.
In comparison to the previous two years, 2014 was very slow for the Arizona housing market, with demand very low and supply only slightly better. While it’s still early to make major prognostications, demand does seem to be picking up. What 2015 will bring to the market for Phoenix area homes depends very much on what happens with supply. If it increases a lot over the next three months, then we will continue to see the buyers’ market continue from 2014. However, the last four weeks have shown supply growing slowly, which will favor sellers as home prices rise.
(Source: Michael Orr of the Cromford Report and the WP Carey School at ASU)
